R number soars in Germany

The COVID Diaries – 86 22nd June

The reproduction rate of Covid-19 in Germany has increased from 1.06 to 2.88 in just two days following a string of localised outbreaks. It is unclear if this is a short term spike or a sign of a second wave of the virus.

If the R number remains at this high level then it will be far higher than what is needed to contain the outbreak over a longer period of time.

If the R number remains at 2.88 this means that every 100 people who contract the virus will infect, on average, 288 more people. To contain the virus, a number lower than 1 is needed.

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